1/23/26 Report - Mystery Metal Detector Find for Dating. Early Indigenous Use of Spanish Silver and Beads. Seminole Use of Silver.

 

Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of the Treasure Beaches Report.

Find for ID
Found by Dan K.

Here is what Dan K. said.

I found this piece of broken gold recently on a Treasure Coast beach. Im not sure what this was a piece from. It rang up a 3 on the equinox. A friend thought it may be old. I wanted to send it in too see if anyone has any thoughts on the age. I’m not sure if this type of setting for the stones is more modern or older.

Thanks,
Dan

Thoughts anyone.  How old do you think it is.  I'll keep my thoughts until I hear from the readers.

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Someone mentioned something the other day that made me think of how quickly the indigenous tribes came into possession of Spanish colonial coins and silver.  They used it to manufacture a variety of items.  

The Seminoles liked and used a lot of silver.  

Ted Smallwood established the store [in Chokoloskee, Fl.] as a trading post to serve the remote area in 1906.

Smallwood only had a third-grade education, but he quickly became fluent in several Native American dialects and gained the trust of his Seminole neighbors.

A large wooden box that Smallwood used to keep money and other valuables for his Seminole customers. A sign on the display notes, “The Seminoles did not like to use paper money.”

“Everything paid out, other than food trade, had to be done in silver.”

According to family lore, the Seminole traders would arrive with 8-pound lard buckets filled with silver coins. They entrusted their money with Smallwood, and he kept it in his “wooden bank.”

“Due to the weight of the coins, Ted Smallwood carried around with him daily, his daughters relined his pockets with canvas, replacing them as needed from wear. His pockets were his personal bank.”

I've done some posts on Seminole silver in the past.

Here is one.  The Treasure Beaches Report Direct From Florida's Treasure Coast.: 6/12/17 Report - Seminole Silver and Some Good References. 

The above image shows the wearer with a silver gorget, pendannt and arm band.  

Another illustration from that post shows this Seminole finger ring.

Kevin Reilly (deceased) once dug a Seminole head band near the site of the old fort in Fort Pierce. He put a hole right through it while digging it up. One of those regrettable accidents.

 You'll find more links in the following linked post. 

Also see The Treasure Beaches Report Direct From Florida's Treasure Coast.: 6/22/17 Report - Silver Seminole Artifacts. Mining and Science History. Gold Chalices.  

You can also find more on the subject in treasurebeachesreport by doing a search using "Seminole silver." in the search box.  

Maybe you've found some silver like that. 

Of course, the Seminoles were not the first indigenous tribes to covet and use silver.  Some of the earliest Spanish shipwrecks were salvaged by the local indigenous tribes.  There was little delay between the initial European contact and the adoption of European cultural materials by the natives.

Native groups living on the central and south Florida Atlantic coast, were nearly as proficient as the Calusa in recovering large quantities of goods from wrecked Spanish ships. The 16th-century Spanish shipwreck sur vivor Fontaneda wrote: I desire to speak of the riches found by the Indians of Ais, which perhaps were as much as a million dollars, or over, in bars of silver, gold, and in articles of jewelry made by the hands of Mexican Indians, which the passengers were bringing with them. These things Carlos divided with the ca ciques of Ais, Jeaga, Guacata, Mayajuaco, and Mayaca, andhetookwhatpleasedhim,orthe best part. (True 1945:34)

You might want to read that entire article.  Here is the link.  Glass Beads and Spanish Shipwrecks: A New Look at Sixteenth-Century European Contact on the Florida Gulf Coast

That site also includes a nice map showing areas in Florida where early contact materials were found.

And here is a great article on collecting trade silver.

INDIAN TRADE SILVER IN THE AMERICAS

---

After looking at my most recent finds from this week, the nice looking ring has just a maker's mark.  It has no gold karat mark, so until I get it tested, I'm doubting that it is gold.  The other items I showed are silver.

---

Surf Chart from SurfGuru.com.

Good hunting,

Treasureguide@comcast.net

1/22/26 Report - Looking at a Couple Treasure Coast Beaches and a Few New Metal Detecting Finds.

 

Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of the Treasure Beaches Report.

I went out to look at some beaches Wednesday.   John Brooks showed no additional improvement since the day before. In fact I saw some deterioration.  Notice the seaweed.  Targets were fewer.

I also visited Walton Rocks.  I was late to the party there.  I could see that I missed some earlier nice cuts.  Maybe they were from the day before, but also prior to that.

.

To the north there were no apparent cuts.  I don't know about around the bend.

From the above view you can't tell a lot, but there was a nice old cut down there.  It wasn't brand new. In fact, there was evidence of a couple older cuts.

That is one beach that has been in a long-term erosion trend - ever since the last renourishment project.  The beach to the south has been losing since then with minor refills in between.  Again, I don't know what has been going on up around the bend.  Dur to variety of reasons, I spent very little time in the field in 2025.  Almost ashamed of myself.

There was a line of exposed rock running along the low beach to the south.

Sorry, I didn't take the best photos here.  I was wanting to get started with the detector.

Down a few inches was the orange color shelly layer.  That has been there over the past year or so, at least.

When you hit the shell layer there is a lot of aluminum junk.  

That area had evidently been detected recently, but a LOT of junk remained.  

That area of Walton Rocks can be a real challenge if you don't want to dig junk.  Besides the aluminum there is a lot of copper, lead and iron.  

Even with the great target ID of the Manticore, there is such a heavy amount and mixture of junk it is hard to tell what it what.

I've always been a dig-it-all kind of guy, but these days I don't put in sufficient time to do that, and I try to save my back.  It is almost impossible to get some targets out from under and in between the stones, and some of the old items will slip down into the cracks and crevices.  That, besides the shell layer, makes for some tough digging.

One of the first signals I dug was the tiny heavily corroded silver ring, which showed as a nice oval on the high end of the center line on the Manticore.  I quit early and bet there are still some good things there if you are patient and willing to dig some junk. I haven't cleaned up or examined yesterday's finds very well yet.

Anyhow, I was able to pick a few better targets out of between the junk, but my biggest accomplishment of the day was being able to dig as much as I did, and my back is fine today. 

--- 

I have a find from a reader that I plan to post tomorrow.

---

Surf Chart from Surfguru.com.

Nothing big coming up real soon.

Good hunting,

Treasureguide@comcast.net

1/21/26 Report - Fake Treasure Coins Actually Found by Metal Detecting Florida Beaches and How to Identify Fakes.

 

Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of the Treasure Beaches Report.

Four Finds Florida Beach Metal Detecting Finds.  (Obverse and Reverse)

I'll number these examples 1 - 4 clockwise starting with at the top left.  The two on the left are Pillars and Waves types, while the two on the right are shield types.

Can you tell which one is fake?  Give it a shot.   I know the pictures aren't the greatest.

Here is closeup of number 1 (top left).  How about it?

This one is marked, but it isn't so easy to see.  Look at the 10 to 11 o'clock position near the edge.   You can see the "copy" mark there.

At first glance on the beach you might easily mistake it for a real reale.  It is of the Pillars and Waves type and marked with the denomination of 8 so should weigh somewhere around 27.5 grams but actually weighs 21.9 grams.  

Some real beach cobs are way underweight due to corrosion or wear, but this one shows other obvious signs of fakery once it has been cleaned.  

Maybe you can tell from the top photo that it was once plated.  The plating has worn through in many places and shows a copper looking metal underneath.

Example No. 1.

This particular example was found towards the south end of Jensen Beach down close to where the resort now stands.  I definitely didn't see the COPY mark when I dug it up and it didn't look bad fresh out of the ground.  You can easily see the COPY mark with magnification but is not so apparent on the mottled surface of the actual example and was not seen prior to cleaning.  

--- 

How about no. 2 (below)?

This one shows the COPY mark very clearly, but it didn't when it was found.  This one has a copper look, but that is only after the sand and corrosion was cleaned off along with some of the surface plating.

This fake, like many you'll see, is way too thin and light.  Always check the edges for mold seams or signs of manufacture.

This example weighs only 6.8 grams, which is closer to what a two-reale should weigh.  

Example No. 2.

This one is clearly marked "COPY."

---

How about the next one (no. 3)?

This one is the same shield style as the one above, but is made of another type of metal.

Example No. 3.

The surface is very corroded.  I don't know what metal it is.

It looks very much like coin no. 2 except being in a different metal.  This one is also way too thin and flat and weighs only 5.1 grams.  

If you have some experience with real cobs, you would probably quickly identify no. 2 and 3 as fake. Even if covered with sand, they will simply look and feel wrong.  However, if you haven't handled real cobs, it might take a while to get them cleaned up and identified.

This one is also marked COPY, but the mark isn't as easy to find.  Look at the upper left of the coin at about the 11 o'clock position.

I don't know which one now, but either no. 2 or 3 was found near the foot of the dunes many years ago at Jupiter.  

---

Moving onto no. 4, this is another of the Pillars and Waves variety, although the surface is so corroded that it isn't as easy to see the design features.

Example No. 4.

This one, like no. 2 and 3, and unlike 1, is thin and flat.  It weighs only 7 grams. 

It is clearly not silver, and definitely a fake even though I can't find any COPY mark on it.  It might be there, but I can't find it.

Judging by those I've found, fake treasure coins from the Treasure Coast are often marked COPY, as required by law, but the marks are not always easy to find.   

I'd bet that no. 4 is marked even though I can't find the mark.  It is simply not realistic enough to be meant as a counterfeit. 

When Spanish colonial coins were in circulation, weight was very important.  Anyone accepting a reale or escudo would be interested in the weight to be sure they were receiving the correct amount of silver or gold.  They might not be aware of all the different types and designs, but they would want to receive the right amount of value in the metal.

I have seen more realistic fakes.  Maybe I'll post one of those.  One looked really good until I acid tested the metal.   It was also marked, but the mark was very near the edge and worn down and was only found with close inspection under magnification.  I learned that it was not silver long before I found the obscure mark.  

You should also be aware that there are some pretty good and some pretty poor contemporary counterfeits (fakes made to deceive and circulate along with legitimate coinage).  Those can be valuable even if they are fakes.  

Even a poor fake can fool a hopeful inexperienced hunter on the beach, but here is what I'd check.

1.  Do a little cleaning first, being careful not to remove plating or do any significant damage..

2.. Check overall look and feel noting any plating or features that don't look right.  

3..  Check for seams or other signs that the coin was made in a mold or wrong manufacturing process.

4.  Closely inspect the coin with magnification.  Look for any COPY mark or other mark such as sterling or K value.  As I showed today, many of the fakes found on the beaches will be marked, but marks can be difficult to find even if there is one.

5.  Try to determine the metal type.  These days the best thing to do is take it to a pawn store that will test it with an XRF analyzer.  You can also test with a magnet or do an acid test.

Simple tests include dropping the coin on ceramic tile to listen to the sound.  Maybe do a rubbing on a whet stone to observe the color or other characteristics of the scratch.  Silver won't screech, but other junk metals will.  So also will very heavy patinas sometimes.  

There is a lot you can tell from a rubbing.  Look at the color and other characteristics.  Remember you have to get through the patina.

6. Match the design on the coin with what you find in the books on cobs and treasure coins.  Unfortunately, some of the best books are expensive and have so many examples that it can confuse you even more. 

And of course there are many online resources, including this blog.  

I hope this post helped.

---

There was still some decent hunting out there.  I saw some deteriorating cuts and some older sand.  More on that tomorrow.

Surf Chart for Rest of Week from SurfGuru.com.

Nothing big in the near future.

Good hunting,

Treasureguide@comcast.net

1/20/26 Report - A Look At A Couple Treasure Coast Beaches Today. Correlated Beaches. Targets Are Out There.

 

Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of the Treasure Beaches Report.

Fort Pierce Beach Near 10 AM Tuesday Morning from SurfGuru.com.

I checked the beach cam this morning and saw the beginnings of a small cut.

I visited that spot around 2 PM and this is what I saw.

Cut that Developed South of Fort Pierce Today as Seen at Around 2 PM.

You can see how the cut developed.  There is a detectorist in the picture.  Sorry it is kind of blurry.  You can also see his line of holes.

I saw this rooster at the beach today.  Don't know why he was there.  Maybe escaped a Santeria ritual.  I don't have any idea.

I've talked about correlated beaches.  When one beach cuts or fills, other similarly situated beaches will do the same thing or at least something similar.  From the early morning beach cam view, I saw a cut beginning to form south of Fort Pierce.  I thought John Brooks would likely do something similar and did some metal detecting there today.

Small Interrupted Cuts Running Along John Brooks Beach This Afternoon.

There were a good number of targets at John Brooks this afternoon.  There were some clad coins and some fishhooks, a few iron flakes and a little other junk.

There were targets down near the waterline.  Some were pretty deep.  I lost the low tide and had to let some of the deeper targets go.  They were simply too deep and the water was filling the holes before I could get the items out.

I put in some good practice time with the Manticore.  It does a really good job of target ID and shows good depth.  

I was disappointed to leave one good sounding deep target without getting it.  

I wouldn't be surprised if a small amount cobs were found in the past couple of days, but don't now for sure.  I didn't hit any today.

---

SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM PREDICTED: A CME is approaching Earth, and it could cause a severe (G4-class) geomagnetic storm when it arrives during the early UTC hours of Jan. 20th. For sky watchers in North America, this means the night of Jan. 19-20. Widespread auroras are possible if the storm reaches its predicted peak intensity. Full story @ Spaceweather.com.

---

Here is the surf chart for the upcoming week.

SurfChart from SurfGuru.com.

Looks like we'll have around three to four feet for a few days with just a touch higher towards next week.

Good hunting,

TreasureGuide@comcast.net

1/19/26 Report - Cold Front. Metals Prices: Silver in High Demand. Maximizing Decision Strategies for Metal Detecting Site Selection.

Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of the Treasure Beaches Report.

Just After This Morning's High Tide
Fort Pierce South Jettty Beach Cam - South Beach Zoom from SurfGuru.com.

It's cool out there this morning after another cold front came through. 

 

Surf Chart from SurfGuru.com.

Looks like there could be a nice bump in the surf about seven days out, but being so far out, there is a good chance it disappears before actually getting here.  We'll see.

===

The price of silver rose by more than 142 percent for the year 2025. In the first two weeks of 2026, silver’s price jumped by almost another 30 percent from where it was on December 31, 2025. Over the course of last year, the price of gold soared more than 64 percent, platinum zoomed more than 127 percent, and palladium gained over 74 percent.

The outstanding performance of silver in particular was due to the difficulty of manufacturers being able to find the silver inventories required to fabricate their industrial products... It is an essential component of a wide range of products, including electric vehicle batteries, cell phones, weapons systems, and sanitary food processing equipment...

However, quickly rising silver prices are disrupting industries that handle high-purity forms of the metal. That includes products such as ingots and coins.

In the fall of 2025, higher silver prices had prompted people to liquidate such a large quantity of silver items that multiple refiners started to build up backlogs of metal to process... Refineries were operating at capacity, so they had the economic incentive to focus on processing only the purest forms of incoming metal to maximize their output.

Although almost all refiners are now accepting lower purity forms of silver to process, there may be a lag in turnaround time of at least a couple of days to maybe two weeks to obtain an assay of metal submitted for melting and refining...

Here is the link for the entire article.

Price Volatility and Capacity Problems with Precious Metals and Numismatics - Numismatic News

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In my 1/16 report I talked about decision strategies.  Today I'll elaborate on the strategy I recommended, which might be called the Maximum Expected Value strategy.

Basically, that strategy considers the probability of finds of various values.  Putting it into equation form, it would be something like Expected Value = (probability outcome 1 times value of outcome 1) + probability outcome 2 times value of outcome 2 + (probability of outcome 3 times value of 3) and continuing for as many different outcomes as you want to consider.

In academic studies the outcomes are limited to a relatively small number and the values of each outcome is defined.  To apply game theory to metal detecting requires some adaptation, because the various outcomes will not be so neatly defined.  For example, instead of being a precise outcome, each outcome might be an entire category, such as modern coins, jewelry, perhaps including silver, modest gold, and valuable gold, shipwreck coins, or even caches. The values will often be the economic value of the finds, again a range instead of a precise value, but that isn't always necessarily the case.  

To illustrate the logic of the strategy, it can be put in the form of an equation. Lets say you have detected a particular site several times and always found a good number of coins, usually somewhere around $1.50 in total value.  At that site you also occasionally find a gold band or some modest but not real expensive piece of gold.  Your estimate might be that you get one of those about every fifth hunt and the average value would be around $150, so that would be 0.20 (the probability) times $150 (the typical value estimate.  And there is virtually no chance of finding anything really expensive at that site.  So EV = (1 times 1.50) plus ( .20 times $150.00) = 1.50 plus 37.5 = 39.  You could compare that expected value with the EV of other sites, which might produce different finds and have different probabilities and values.  If you evaluate such sites according to the EV numbers, you would choose the highest EV sites first because that site would be expected to produce the highest value of finds over time.  

So how do you know the expected probability of a find?  You develop an estimate based upon your past experience at the site, and you can revise that probability estimate as you gather more experience.  On first visits, you might have some guess, perhaps based upon observations or research. 

You don't have to be so precise.  It is an estimate - hopefully a good estimate and one that improves with experience.  The basic idea is to consider the types of finds, probabilities of each and the value of each type.  Consider, for example, another site in a very exclusive private club beach where you find very little change, an occasional gold band, but every once in a while something very expensive like an expensive diamond ring or expensive watch.  The high value item would shift the equation a lot even if the probability is much lower than the less valuable categories.  From an economic perspective, high value finds, even if they are very low probability, really have a huge impact on the total expected value.  I talked about that before. 

While modern coin values will not provide much economic incentive more frequent finds provide another kind of value.  They provide information about the distribution of items on a beach,  They also might keep you interested while awaiting the high value but rare finds.

See The Treasure Beaches Report Direct From Florida's Treasure Coast.: 7/10/14 Report - The Math of Metal Detecting and How It Can Assist Decisions and Strategies

Common finds usually aren't worth much.  There is an exponential increase in value with rarity.  Very valuable items are rare.  The exponential effect of rarity on price is huge.  A mint condition coin is much more valuable than one in poor condition.  You seldom find a mint condition coin. 

Here is a little chart I once made to illustrate that.

Going left to right, rarity increases while the value decreases.  Or to flip it around, as finds become less common, they become more valuable. 

The exponential increase in value of rarer items is dramatic and real   Just look at the difference in price for a mint state coin with a low population compared to a common "good" example.  

That is all fine and good if you are only interested in economic value, but many detectorists are interested in finds that may have less value.  They just "like" to find some kinds of items.  For example, some people like to find old things even if those old things have little value.  In that case, your value system might be a mix of economic and other factors.  Your value system can be personal and based upon what you like rather than the economic values.

In summary, my first point is that while the logic can be defined in the form of an equation, in reality you would simply be comparing the total expected value (economic or other) of finds for particular sites. 

I know that to some of you, this might seem like I'm unnecessarily complicating a simple matter, but the bottom line is that if you are more aware of your expectations, values, assumptions and how you make decisions, you will be able to make better decisions and improve results.  I hope that going through this thought process will help you do that.

Good hunting,

Treasureguide@comcast.net

1/18/26 Report - Ancient Shipwreck Found. Musket Ball Find by T. C. Detectorist. Mystery Find and Manticore Target ID System Example.

 

Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of the Treasure Beaches Report.

600-year-old Shipwreck Being Explored.

After removing centuries of sand and silt, the team realized they had uncovered the world’s largest cog, a type of ship developed in the North Sea region during the Middle Ages. The ship, named Svælget 2, measures around 28 meters (92 feet) long, 9 meters (30 feet) wide, and 6 meters (20 feet) high, and was large enough to haul up to 300 tons of cargo.

“The find is a milestone for maritime archaeology. It is the largest cog we know of, and it gives us a unique opportunity to understand both the construction and life on board the biggest trading ships of the Middle Ages,”....

Here is the link for more about that.

Marine Archeologists Find The World's Largest Cog Shipwreck From Medieval Times | IFLScience

===

I received the following photos and message from Mark G.

50 Caliber Musket Ball Find by Mark G.

I was melting down some lead this evening, cool in the garage it has been stacking up, the new Manticore loves lead. I dumped out the plastic jar and was loading the smalls first into the “Hot Pot” when I noticed a perfectly round weight, most are egg shaped with a hole through them. When I picked it up it was heavy even for lead I thought this might be a musket ball. I measured it weighted and discussed with my AI copilot and it is most certainly a 50 caliber musket ball. Now where did I find it? I keep a photo record of my finds each hunt even the bad ones so I should have it and I just melted lead back in November so shouldn’t be hard. Found it on December 12^th under the same bridge that I found my Reale in the parking lot in 2024. This recreational island was engineered to be built from the spoils from digging of the foundations for the support towers. They have recently refurbished the sand and coral stone around the islands but the island is still eroding away. I attached the photo record of Dec 12, I arrange all my findings in the same order each time see if you can find it, from the top; scrap aluminum bottle caps and junk, next any cars or toys, tent stakes to the left, fishing equipment including lead are next then coins ending with all jewelry on the bottom. This hunt had no tent stakes or kids toys all junk, lead or coins so searching was easier.

 

I ran this scenario through my AI Copilot and it went crazy.

Musket Ball and Other Finds the Same Day by Mark G.

Thanks for sharing Mark.

Mark's example illustrates a couple things I've said in this blog.

First, you might not identify or truly appreciate a find until much later.  In some cases, it can take years before you realize the significance of a find.

Secondly, keeping good records of finds can be very helpful.  In this case, his records helped Mark identify the site where he found the musket ball.

===

I've been doing a little hunting in a junky areas with the Manticore and I've been impressed by the target ID capabilities.  Below is an item I found.  Do you know what it is?

Here is the Manticore display for the item.  The one thing you can see is the audio tone which was a good high pitch.

Notice the high conductivity number and the small disc shaped object in the center line, which is where you'll generally see coins located on the display.  It looked good, so I dug it.  At first glance I thought it might be a button or coin.  Have you figured it out yet?  It is a tough one.  I didn't know what it is until I looked I did some research.

Indelbauru makes electrical components.  This one is a fuse head or cap.  Here is a little about it from their site.

It is the fuse button head made of conductive metals such as copper silver plated.  No wonder the conductivity of the item was shown as high.on the Manticore, which has the best target ID capability I've ever used.

With modern technological developments, more and more valuable metals are being used for electrical and technology applications.

If you look closely at the labeling on the fuse button, you'll notice the quality of the laser printing.  Those things actually cost about fifty dollars, if you look it up.  Of course, you are not likely to ever buy or sell one, but the laser printing suggested something of high quality.

================

Tomorrow I plan to elaborate on decision logic for evaluating and selecting sites for metal detecting.

Surf Chart from SurfGuru.com.

It looks like we'll have generally higher surf in the coming week.  

Good hunting,

Treasureguide@comcast.net

1/16/26 Report - Decision Strategies for Metal Detecting and Treasure Hunting: Research, Theory and Application.

 

Written by the Treasureguide for the exclusive use of the Treasure Beaches Report.

Fort Pierce Beach This Morning from Fort Pierce Jetty Beach Cam.

Two days ago, I talked a bit about signal detection theory as it applies to metal detecting target ID and discrimination.  Today I'll begin a discussion of decision strategies for detectorists.  

Different detectorists use different strategies.  Detectorists usually select strategies instinctively or by  feel rather than using a detailed formal process.  Detecting strategies usually aren't defined in specific or detailed terms.  Each decision strategy is based upon assumptions, and each strategy reflects characteristics of the detectorist.  

My thinking on this subject is rooted in academic theory and research, but I'll try to make it as simple and understandable as I can, while at the same time reflecting some of the academic authority behind it.  

Some treasure hunters will pursue the largest possible treasures.  These treasure hunters might pick a huge cache or sunken treasure ship that hasn't been found and spare no expense, time or effort in the search for that treasure.  You might think of the search for the Atocha.as an example.  That takes a certain kind of person.  Some people might call those people dreamers.  The probability of success on a search like that might be very small, but that does not deter those people who are driven to go after the maximum possible outcome. 

On the other hand, there are people who are more risk averse and try to minimize the possibility of worst things that could happen.  They are more concerned about possible negative outcomes. They might not want to invest a lot in the search or take chances that might leave them broke in the end.  They will seek a more modest but attainable treasure. 

One important point here is that treasure hunters or detectorists are different, and those differences are reflected in their decision making and behavior.  In the terms of the academic research, these differences might be referred to as operator characteristics.  If you want to check out the academic body of knowledge on the subject you can use the terms Minimax and Maximin, which are the names two commonly employed strategies that relate to the examples I gave above.   ***

In academic terms, Minimax (sometimes Minmax, MM or saddle point) refers to a decision rule used in artificial intelligence, decision theory, combinatorial game theory, statistics, and philosophy for minimizing the possible loss for a worst case (maximum loss).

A decision strategy that I recommend for detectorists is maximizing the expected value.  I'm going to give you the math on a simplified example just to illustrate the basics, but you don't really have to do the math to use the decision strategy.

I'll start with a very simple example.  Suppose there is a coin flip game in which you are rewarded five dollars for every heads flip and lose three dollars for every tails. Below are the steps for applying the strategy, which are also the basic steps you'd use for real-life applications.

1. Identify all possible outcomes of interest.  

2. Determine the probability of each outcome.
3. Multiply the value of each outcome by its probability.
4. Add all the products to get the expected value.

In the coin flip game where you win $5 if the coin lands on heads and lose $3 if it lands on tails, the expected value is calculated as follows: Expected Value = (5 x 0.5) + (-3 x 0.5) = $1.

If you attempt to use the strategy of maximizing expected outcomes in metal detecting, you do the same thing.  You identify the possible outcomes and the probability of each outcome and the value of each outcome.

I'm not saying to actually do the math but follow the logic. What are the outcomes. 

When I began detecting I actually kept a record of all my coin finds, including the total number and type or value of coin.  If I remember correctly, the average value of modern U.S. coins finds was about 7.5 cents.  That, of course, was for the beaches I was detecting.  Things could be different today and could be different for different beaches. 

Lets make the situation more complex and more realistic.  Not only might you find coins, but you might be hunting jewelry and dealing with junk.

I talked about trade-offs yesterday.  You can look at dug junk as having a small negative value.  On the other hand, good jewelry will have a high and possibly real high positive value.

If you've detected a site several times, you have a better idea of the types of objects that might be found there and the values.  As you detect you might be constantly taking note of what learn about the probability of different types of finds.  And that can definitely affect your decisions.

You may have learned that site X has tons of beer bottle cans, smashed beer cans, and other junk, and it has some coins, and perhaps an occasional cheap gold band.  You might figure that there is a high probability of finding some amount of coins, and a probability of finding a cheap gold band, and virtually no chance of finding a very expensive ring or a Rolex.

Compare that with another site, maybe Y where you are likely to find very few coins and very few gold items, but the gold you do find has a high value.  If you use the formula, you might find that site Y, even though it produces few finds, produces a higher average value.  There might be more days when you completely strike out at that beach, but on those days when you hit anything, you do well.  

As I've pointed out in previous posts, finding one Rolex is better than finding hundreds or even thousands of coins.  

If you look at the probabilities and your best estimate of values, you might be surprised and you will have good information for making good decisions.

I hope you can see how the logic of the average expected value formula can be used for site selection.  That kind of logic can also be used to help you make decisions about target ID and discrimination.

I've also talked a lot in the past about keeping good find records.  They can assist you in estimating the likelihood (or probability) of different kinds of finds for different sites.

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Surf Chart from SurfGuru.com.

Nothing special going on with the surf or tides.

Good hunting,

Treasureguide@comcast.net