Written by the Treasureguide for the exclusive use of the Treasure Beaches Report.
The above a diagram is frequently used to illustrate a principle involved with a failed attempt at problem solving. The diagram shows where planes returning from raids during World War II were hit by bullets or shrapnel. It was thought by some that the areas that were frequently hit and damaged should be armored more heavily.
Can you see the problem with that?
The principle involved is called survivorship bias. It is a common error that has be demonstrated in many disciplines.
The problem is that they studied planes that returned. Those planes survived. The ones that didn't return were hit in other more critical areas, including, but not limited to, the engines and nose of the plane. Those are the areas that actually needed strengthening. The planes that safely made it back were not hit in those critical areas. I'd call it a type of sampling error. That is only one of many possible examples of how survivorship bias leads to incorrect conclusions.
If someone wants to know what kind of stuff that has been metal detected at a particular beach or site, they might search the internet and see pictures of many very good finds. They won't see all the junk that was detected or the many times a beach was detected with absolutely no good finds. Good finds receive most of the attention. That is what most people like to see. They want to see what great treasures have been and what they might be able to find. It provides motivation.
Your metal detector settings might be set to discriminate out iron, for example. People who detect like that might miss a lot of shipwreck spikes. Similarly, if you pass up a lot of strong signals that would indicate large objects, that will also cause you to miss things larger items, such as spikes.
I've told before how way back in my early days of metal detecting, I typically used an amount of discrimination that eliminated nickels and things that fell below that on the discrimination scale. At the time. As a result, I incorrectly concluded that men lost a lot more rings than women. Men's rings are generally larger, and it was the larger rings that I was finding. I eventually discovered that I was missing smaller rings because of my level of discrimination. Now I find a lot of smaller rings and realize that women lose just as many rings as men. They are often the more valuable rings with diamonds and gems too.
We never know what we miss. But you do miss some things, and that to some extent will affect your assessment of what is out there. And that is one of the reasons I don't like to discriminate unless I have a definite reason, and it is part of my strategy for that particular hunt. Most of the time I won't use any discrimination. I prefer to hear what is in the ground. But even with no discrimination, you are missing a lot. There are deep things and tiny things and things that are masked or made of a material that you will miss with any metal detector.
You can find more information on survivor bias in Wikipedia.
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A few weeks ago, Chase Bank sent the letter below stating that they would be closing our safe deposit box and that we needed to remove the contents. To my surprise, we later found out that this was not just a local issue, but a nationwide decision by Chase. I have seen advertisements online from coin companies offering to purchase rare coins and bullion from customers who have lost their safe deposit boxes...
Here is the link for the rest of that article.
I've been telling you for decades not to keep your valuables at home and to keep them in some place very safe, such as a bank deposit box, but it appears that there is a trend for banks to quit maintaining safe deposit boxes, partly due the fact that fewer people are visiting their branch banks, but are doing their banking online.
The historic bank building at 111 Orange Ave is still there but has not been used as a bank for some time. They downsized and moved across the street and then eliminated that branch altogether when it changed from SunTrust to Truist.
The bank vault in that building was large and at different times contained a lot of 1715 Fleet treasure.
It was originally built in 1922 for the St. Lucie County Bank. Really a nice big bank building.
I don't know of any local banks that have stopped offering deposit boxes yet, but it might happen.
The photo above shows a bank vault standing after a bank burned down in the Palisades fires. I don't know if people have been able to retrieve their items, but I doubt it. Also it is possible that the high temperatures could have damage items in the vault.
Once again, take security seriously. I'd still keep items in a bank deposit box as long as that is an option, but it might not be an option in the future.
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Some snowbirds are sharks.
Here is the link for more about that.
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| Source: nhc.noaa.gov. |
T
he surf forecast for the Treasure Coast still doesn't show much surf. In fact it looks like something around two feet for the next week or so.
Keep watching the area shown on the National Hurricane Center map.
Good hunting,
Treasureguide@comcast.net