Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of the Treasure Beaches Report.
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| Source: nhc.noaa.gov |
There is now hurricane Fiona, but it looks like it will probably stay far to the east. According to MagicSeaWeed, it will still bring us some higher surf.
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| Source: MagicSeaWeed.com. |
So far it looks like we might get a five to seven- or eight-foot surf. An eight-foot surf is pretty big, but unfortunately, we are now having tides that are nearly flat, which will moderate the effect of the surf.
Predicting erosion depends upon other predictions when you attempt to do it a few days out. Once those factors are firm, your erosion predictions can be pretty accurate. Of course, the weather models contain some degree of uncertainty and disagreement, and that adds to the amount of uncertainty to any predictions of erosion.
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When I started this blog, the primary purpose was to let people know what to expect of beach metal detecting conditions, and I reported on beach conditions every day.
I began metal detecting in South Florida and mostly hunted modern jewelry, but eventually started making occasional trips to the Treasure Coast. Often after the drive, I'd arrive only to find the beaches totally sanded in. Remember, that was before there was so much on the internet. I started this blog and posted beach conditions ratings so people wouldn't have to make so many wasted trips. The blog evolved as I started to post finds and other thoughts about metal detecting and whatever I felt like writing about. There were times, especially during summers, when beach conditions remained the same for so long that I got bored with posting the same rating every day. I then started giving my beach conditions rating only when something was happening.
When I began this blog, I didn't know if anyone would read it, but it quickly took off. Hundreds of people were reading each daily post.
People ask how I find something to talk about every day, but there is always something on my mind to post. By writing down my thoughts, it forces me to be more clear and precise and that helps me refine and develop my ideas, which is how I benefit from doing this blog.
Anyhow, yesterday I wrote about the subject of predicting beach erosion, and I mentioned my beach conditions rating scale, which I haven't posted much lately. This summer we had very little surf and almost no changes in beach metal detecting conditions.
I thought it might be helpful to go back and revisit my rating scale, which evolved over the years. The rating scale is a five-point scale. A 1 rating indicates poor detecting conditions, and a 5 rating indicates excellent beach detecting conditions. The rating scale provides an idea of how likely it is that old Spanish Treasure coins will be found. It does not attempt to predict other types of finds.
Level 1 conditions are very common, while level 5 conditions are rare. Level 1 conditions are conditions of accretion or no change (which must be something like 60% of the time) while level 5 conditions are those with massive erosion such as occurred during the Thanksgiving Storm of 1984 or the storms of 2004. During those times erosion develops or remains for a period of days, creates big cuts, and removes significant sand from the back dunes.
One of the difficulties with my rating scale is that it is an overall rating for the Treasure Coast and does not describe individual beaches. There can be times when only one or two beaches are good, while the others do not improve or do not improve nearly as much. That is not so much the case during level 1 or 5 conditions, but when there is a more moderate rating, there can be more variability between beaches. I have to kind of average it out, so if you visit the wrong beach, you will get the impression that the rating is wrong.
Below is a little chart I find useful. The vast majority of good finds are made on very few days. If you've experiences some very productive days, you know they aren't real common. When things are hot, they are hot. When they are not, they are not. During more moderate conditions, unless you hit just the right spot, you will not get that many finds.
A "2" rating on my scale, indicates transitional conditions. It indicates that sand has moved and while there is a slight chance of good finds being made, there might well be none, and if there are any, they will be very few.
A level 3 rating indicates that finds will almost certainly be made, but they will not be very plentiful.
A level four rating indicates that finds will be common.
I've already described level five. There will be massive erosion to most beaches, including big cuts and significant erosion to dunes. You might have one of those only every few years. During level five conditions, beaches and bridges might be closed.
Not everyone will be successful when beach conditions improve, no matter what the rating is. You still have to make finds. If you visit the wrong beach at the wrong time and miss out, you might think the rating is wrong. Skill and luck still matter.
Occasionally only one beach will be producing and you will miss out unless you happen to hit that particular beach. That was the case once in 2020, for example. When that is the case, I don't like to name the particular beach because everyone will flock to that one beach. And during those times, since I don't get to go out a lot anymore, I can easily miss those myself. People do not share as much anymore as they did a few years ago. Nevertheless, giving some idea of overall beach conditions helps a lot of people and prevents a lot of wasted trips. You'd rather go out when there is some chance than none. It is a matter of probabilities. The general information provided by the beach conditions ratings should help. When it comes down to it, you have to make your own decisions, but you will be better off if you learn to take advantage of the freely offered information.
Recent beach renourishment made it difficult for all of us. You could get a lot of erosion, and still the beach would not be productive. That kind of thing increases the variability between beaches. As I've said before, not all erosion is the same. Erosion to a newly renourished beach won't help much unless the amount of erosion is huge.
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Good hunting,
Treasureguide@comcast.net