Written by the Treasureguide for the exclusive use of the Treasure Beaches Report.
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| Source: nhc.noaa.gov. |
I was getting a little tired of covering all the storms and took a couple days off during a lull, but now we have another one that could be headed towards Florida and possibly the Treasure Coast.
Lee is expected to become a major hurricane very soon if it hasn't already by the time you read this. It is headed in our general direction but could turn north and miss Florida entirely. It is too early to tell for sure. If it turns north, it could still possibly send us some good north winds and waves. Keep watching. Prepare for the worst, even if it might not happen.
I ran the ECMWF model on windy.com. The model showed the hurricane nearing Puerto Rico in about a week, as shown below. The projected track will probably change a bit one way or another before it is all over.
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| Product of ECMWF Model Showing Projected Position of Hurricane Lee Next Tuesday Morning. Source: Windy.com. |
For what it's worth, and that is probably not very much, the GFS model shows the storm tracking just a touch more to the north.
It looks like a very strong and dangerous storm, so keep watching.
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When thieves steal jewelry or coins in the movies they try to fence them for what value they can get. In real life such stolen objects may not do so well. It is easier to melt the objects for their intrinsic value, which also makes it more challenging for law enforcement to trace and identify what was stolen.
This, unfortunately, appears to be the fate of 483 Celtic gold coins stolen Nov. 22, 2022 from the Celtic and Roman Museum in Manching, Bavaria. The trove has been considered to be the largest find of Celtic gold found in the 20th century. The coins were discovered during a 1999 archaeological dig near Manching...
Here is the link for more about that.
Stolen Gold Coins Melted - Numismatic News
Thanks to SuperRick for that link.
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After questioning the value of general mask-wearing early in the COVID-19 pandemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention decided the practice was so demonstrably effective that it should be legally mandated even for 2-year-olds. A new review of the evidence suggests the CDC had it right the first time.
That review, published by the Cochrane Library, an authoritative collection of scientific databases, analyzed 18 randomized controlled trials that aimed to measure the impact of surgical masks or N95 respirators on the transmission of respiratory viruses. It found that wearing a mask in public places “probably makes little or no difference” in the number of infections...
I remember when Fauci and Birx came out very early during the pandemic and attributed the smaller than predicted number of Covid cases to actions taken by the public. I'm not saying there was a small number of Covid cases because there were many, but the model they presented was way off and they failed to acknowledge the amount of error in the model but instead attributed the difference between the number of actual and predicted cases as being due to observance of their prescribed actions. That was when I knew they were being intellectually dishonest, and I said they should resign or be fired. Some people may not have liked that, but I didn't like our health officials misleading the public. Models are not totally accurate, whether you are talking about disease models or weather. As with the models used for hurricane tracking, some amount of error is to be expected. It is dangerous to not acknowledge or misattribute the error factor.
The politically obsessed may take that as being about politics, but it is really about other things, such as data and modeling. We all use mental models to some extent when we are involved with metal detecting. We have our ideas about how the beach works, how weather will affect the beaches and the distribution of treasure, etc. etc. We have to deal with error and revise our models. That is how we learn.
It always amazes me how people that are obsessed with politics make everything about politics and then blame others for talking politics.
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Here is a video I highly recommend. It is long, so you might want to break it down into multiple viewings, but it addresses an important question that most people attempt to deal with in one way or another.
(1) The Loud Absence: Where is God in Suffering? | John Lennox at Harvard Medical School - YouTube
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Keep watching Lee. It might affect the Treasure Caost and possibly beach metal detecting conditions, but it won't be for several days yet.
Good hunting,
Treasureguide@comcast.net