Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of the Treasure Beaches Report.
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| ECMWF Model Projection for Milton as of Wednesday AM. Source: windyty.com |
My attention is now on Milton. The ECMWF and GFS models show something very similar to the above. It should be noted that other models show a different track and less development. The ECMWF and GFS models show Milton making landfall near Tampa and crossing the state near Daytona or Palm Bay. The National Hurricane Center cone is very similar, but again you will notice a wide cone which includes the Treasure Coast area. It is too early to say exactly when and where the storm will hit and how strong it will be. It could pass right over us. Below is the National Hurricane Center cone.
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| Source: nhc.noaa.gov. |
Below is part of the National Hurricane Center's 3AM advisory concerning Milton.
Unfortunately, some areas badly damaged by Helene could be hit by the storm surge and a lot of rain that will not help their situation.
For beach conditions, it looks like the storm has a very good chance of producing strong north/northeast winds and a lot of erosion to the East Coast of Florida after it crosses the peninsula and goes back out into the Atlantic. Some models show it strengthening a lot over the Atlantic. See for example the output of the GFS model below.
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| GFS Model Output for Milton Thursday. Source: windyty.com. |
Notice the north winds sweeping along Florida's East Coast. That could produce a lot of beach erosion.
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| Source: SurfGuru.com |
Notice the high surf predicted for Thursday - up to eleven feet. The tides remain high too.
Those are the kinds of conditions that produced major erosion back a few years ago in November when I saw areas eroded back to the dunes producing some very nice and very old finds.
The best we can hope for is little to no damage to life and property, but some good metal detecting.
There are some models that at this point show Milton developing very little and as a consequence very little wind. We will probably get some rain in any case, but the Treasure Coast might not get much more than that. There is still to much uncertainty to say how this will affect us. We are looking at possibilities at this point. So be prepared and keep watching to see how things actually develop over the next few days.
The tides will be high again Sunday.
I noticed that the shelves at one big box store were getting low on toilet paper and bottles water. I'd also get any metal detecting equipment charged and ready to go.
Continue to think of those still recovering from Helene.
Good hunting,
Treasureguide@comcast.net