Search This Blog

Monday, July 26, 2021

7/26/21 Report - Factors Affecting the Decision To use Discrimination. Valuable Beer Cans.

 


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of the Treasure Beaches Report.

Pepper Park Sunday.
Photo by DJ.


Thanks DJ.

Dj also sent a photo of a beer can that he dug at an inland site.  As you probably know, beer cans are collectible and can be worth big money, but they have to be in great condition.  Of course most dug cans are not going to make the grade.  However, you should be aware that some beer cans can be worth tens of thousands of dollars.  Below is one good example.




When looking out for old beer cans, this is what you need to remember:

  • The value of vintage beer cans varies from nothing to thousands of dollars.
  • Most pull tabs from the 1970’s or later have little monetary value. This is due to the beer can hobby becoming popular in the early 70’s
  • On the flip side, cone tops and flat top beer cans from the 1970s still hold a little value.

Here is the link for more about that.

5 Old Beer Cans Estimated To Be Worth $10,000 (Or More) (nerdable.com)

----

When to use discrimination and how much to use can be a complex decision that requires consideration of a lot of factors - some of which are subjective.  I've been trying to simplify and clarify that decision making process, but it always gets more complex than I'd like.  Nonetheless, today I'll discuss some of the factors you might want to consider.  

I'm sure the decision to discriminate often comes down to a general feeling for most people.  Some people just don't like to dig junk.  I'm sure they don't like to miss good targets either, but as I've mentioned before, you usually don't find out what you missed, so that isn't experienced as being much of a problem.  

Signal detection theory reminds us that there are two types of errors you can make - false positives, which you are aware of, and the false negatives, which you probably never find out about.  

One big factor to consider when deciding whether to use discrimination is the relative distribution of good targets and junk.

If there is no junk, or very little, there is little to nothing to be gained by using discrimination.  But how do you know if there is junk or not, or how much there is, if you are discriminating?   If you start out without discrimination and assess the site first, then after you find out something about how much junk there is and the type of junk that is there, then you can more strategically use discrimination.

Very often you will find there will be one or two predominant types of junk at a site.  There might be a lot of beer bottle caps, for example.  You can choose to discriminate out the most prevalent types of junk without discriminating everything else.

At Pepper Park, for example, there used to be a lot of beer bottle caps - particularly at the north end.  If you discriminated out those, that would take care of a big percentage of the junk.  I think in more recent years, even though I've not been there for quite a while, it might be cleaner than it was at one time.

The ratio of junk to good targets is a big factor when considering discrimination, but so is the value of the targets.  The possibility of very high value targets can completely change your decision making.  

You will know something of the relative probability of junk and good targets and the average expected value of good targets if you know a beach well.  Some beaches will produce more good targets, and others will produce fewer good targets, but more high-value targets.  The optimal decision rule will take into account both the relative numbers of junk and good targets, but also the value of the targets.  

An object can have information value even if it has no economic value.  It can tell you something about what went on at the site, and it can tell you something about the distribution of targets, especially on beaches where the water has been moving the sand and other objects.  Where the water has been sifting and sorting items, a piece of aluminum, or an accumulation of aluminum items, can tell you that you might not be in the best spot for finding gold.  That information can be more valuable than a coin  or other small value find if you know how to use the information.

I've said this before, but in an area where there is significant erosion, discrimination might not be the best decision.  Some targets will tell you to move on.  Some will tell you to move higher or lower on the beach.  And some will tell you to stay put and really focus on the spot where you are.  Those types of finds are road signs.  If you use too much discrimination in an area like that, you will be missing many of those signs.

In the dry sand or on an inland site, items will not be classified so well.  There can still be signs to watch for though, and some of them can be missed by using discrimination.  Very valuable targets can be missed too.  Watches are a good example.  

Junk can tell you that people have been there and perhaps something about the types of activity that was involved, as well as the time period.  It can also tell you if the area was previously detected and if other detectorists were using discrimination.    There are times when knowing what has already been done at a site might influence how you detect it.

It is not uncommon to find a location where there should be a good heavy coin line and you find mostly nickels.  That can be an indication that the coin line has been detected but the nickels were missed.  I'm a little surprised that hasn't changed more with the advancements in metal detector technology, but you'll still often see that type of thing.  When you know how a site has been detected, you might decide to detect it differently yourself.  You might decide to focus on the types of items that were missed, the areas that were missed, or perhaps go for the smaller and deeper remaining items that could have easily been missed.  When you have limited time, your hunting can actually be more efficient when you can determine what has already been done there.  The people that got there before you may not know what they missed, but you might have a pretty good idea about that.

---

That area up by Jacksonville doesn't look like it will do much for us.

Source: nhc.noaa.gov


Source: magicseaweed.com.


Happy hunting,
Treasureguide@comcast.net