Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of the Treasure Beaches Report.
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| Source: nhc.noaa.gov |
We still have a busy tropical weather map. I paid a lot of attention to Franklin, but you will be seeing more about what is now called tropical depression ten, which is now over by the Yucatan but expected to hit Florida. Franklin, on the other hand is expected to remain far off of the Florida coast.
Although I've been mentioning the area down by the Yucatan for a few days, this is the first that we have a cone for it. You can see it below. Florida
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| Source: nhc.noaa.gov |
Around half of Florida is already in a state of emergency in anticipation of this system becoming a hurricane and hitting Florida. It is time to make your hurricane preparations. Landfall looks like it could be Tuesday or Wednesday.
Here is the product of the ECMWF model which I ran on windy.com.
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| Source: Windy.com. |
If the model is correct, the West Florida coast will be getting some south winds, as will be east coast of Florida. As I've said before that could cause some erosion.
You can still see Franklin off to the east.
In the past I relied heavily on MagicSeaWeed for my surf and other predictions. I used that site so long I was familiar with the types of systematic errors they made, but then they made changes to monetize their site and so I needed to look elsewhere for the information I wanted. There are some great sites, but for my purposes I want something fairly detailed, but yet conveniently displayed.
I used MagicSeaWeed for so many years, I could quickly get what I wanted from that site and had a good feel for how their data would translate to our beaches. I don't yet have the same comfort level with other sites.
SjurfGuru looks like it might serve well. Below is one of their displays for the Fort Pierce Inlet area for Sunday.
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| Source: SurfGuru. |
That summarizes a lot of good data in an easy-to-read form. Notice the surf heights, which show nothing bigger than four feet next week. The little arrows show the expected wave and wind directions.
The same stie also shows the tides, etc.
Of course, you can choose to display the data for areas other than Fort Pierce. You can select Sebastian or Vero or Stuart, for example. Here is Wabasso.
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| Source: Surfguru.com. |
Notice also the north winds, which will change in about a day or so.
It will take me a while to see how I like SurfGuru, but it looks ok.
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The recent erosion at John Brooks quickly disappeared. It might happen again, but it has to be better than the last time. As I've often explained in the past, not all erosion is equal. Some is in recently accumulated sand that will hold nothing old. That was the most recent case. That is why it helps to know something of the history of the beach.
The new sand that just accumulated on John Brooks, probably won't hold anything old, and so when it erodes a little, nothing old will be uncovered. The erosion will have to be deep or far back to uncover anything, and nothing old will wash up before a lot of the recently accumulated sand in front of the beach is moved.
Remember all of that sand that has been dumped up by the inlet has been washing down that way with the long stream currents for years. And remember how far back the beach has been cut in the past. Back in 2004 it was cut back to the walkover, so all that sand out in front has accumulated since then. There could be some old coins in it, but only when the surf was big and there was enough water force to move the heavier stuff in. Accumulations like we saw most recently won't do that. It would take more water force to move coins up the beach, and that, only after they have been uncovered.
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Good hunting,
TreasureGuide@comcast.net